Here’s How the Rays Can Improve Michael Wacha
Yesterday, RHP Michael Wacha and the Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a 1 year, $3 million contract, leading fans to believe the Rays saw something in Wacha other clubs didn’t. Some, however, were more skeptical, seeing as Wacha’s numbers have been erratic over the past few years. In 2020, he finished with a 6.62 ERA, the worst of his career.
So which side is right? We won’t know until next season, but one thing is certain: The Rays didn’t sign Wacha to stick to the status quo. Considering their reliance on pitching analytics, they’ll certainly try to maximize his potential.
Here’s how the Rays might go about doing just that:
Optimize his fastball
Before we dive into his fastball, let’s go over Wacha’s full repertoire. It’s anchored by a gem of a changeup, which he commands extremely well. The pitch had a 34.3% CSW rate in 2020, placing him 7th out of 103 pitchers who threw one at least 100 times. This is the one pitch Wacha and the Rays don’t have to adjust.
He also throws a cutter, which is a decent offering I’ll talk about later. His curveball exists, but it’s seldom thrown and doesn’t get good results –– he threw one just 7 times last season, making it difficult to analyze.
That leaves us with his four-seamer, which usually takes up around 40% of his total pitches. Right away, we can identify a glaring issue with its usage:
So. Many. Meatballs. Any pitch thrown down the middle is bound to run into trouble, and Wacha’s fastball isn’t even particularly good, possessing league-average velocity (93.6 mph) and a poor raw spin rate (2127 rpm). The result is tons of loud contact and a dire lack of whiffs.
How should Wacha optimize his fastball? Here’s a side-by-side comparison between where his fastballs are going and where they actually result in whiffs. Put this way, the answer is very simple:
All Wacha needs to do is start throwing higher! Ok, maybe it isn’t that simple, but it’d still result in instant improvements. Even though Wacha’s raw spin rate is mediocre, his spin efficiency hovers around 90%, giving the pitch much needed vertical break (9.98" in 2020) and subsequent whiff potential. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wacha began elevating and celebrating right off the bat next season.
Solve his cutter’s identity crisis
Pitch identity isn’t binary –– it’s a spectrum. To wit, consider Wacha’s cutter. It behaves differently each year, ranging from a straightforward cutter with more vertical break and slight glove-side cut to a slider-cutter hybrid with less vertical break and more horizontal movement.
This doesn’t seem important at first, but where the cutter lies on the fastball-slider spectrum determines how it’ll be effective. Fastball-like cutters (think Kenley Jansen) thrive in the upper areas of the strike zone, while slider-like cutters (think Trevor Bauer) generally work best low and in. As for Wacha, he located his cutter as if it was a slider:
The problem, however, is that his current cutter is decidedly NOT slider-like. A loss in vertical break did allow the pitch to sink faster, but a lack of horizontal movement (0.92") meant it only became less lively. This could explain the lack of whiffs, and why batters could simply foul off pitches if they wanted:
By changing how Wacha grips and/or delivers his cutter, the Rays can make sure its characteristics are clearly defined. An identity crisis can cripple humans –– it’s apparently the same for pitches, too.
Solidify a 4th pitch
If the Rays are planning to use Wacha as a member of their bullpen, his current three-pitch mix should suffice. But due to the departure of Charlie Morton and swirling rumors of a Blake Snell trade, for now it seems beneficial to slot Wacha into the starting rotation.
In that case, it’s possible the Rays will work with Wacha on a fourth pitch this off-season. It’s rare for a starting pitcher to sustain themselves with just three pitches, unless said pitcher is named Clayton Kershaw or Jacob deGrom.
What pitch, then, should Wacha develop? No answer is correct, but sticking to his curveball seems like a good bet. None of his pitches –– fastball, changeup, cutter –– are focused on generating topspin, so sharpening his curve would create much-needed contrast.
What’s more, the pitch has already shown flashes of potential. In 2019, Wacha’s curveball generated -6.25" of vertical break, which was notably more than the league-average of -4.8" for RHP. Increasing or altering the movement of a pitch is harder than, say, throwing up more often, but in Wacha’s case it’s worth a shot. Plus, relying on his curveball would take away the burden placed on his fastball and changeup, which account for 70% of his pitches.
Jeff Passan wasn’t kidding when he said Michael Wacha has good stuff: His pitches are a few tweaks away from excellence, and it’s this potential that the Rays have awoken many times before. It’s unlikely Wacha will become an ace, but for 1 year and $3 million, he won’t have to.
All data from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and TexasLeaguers.com.
