Nick Castellanos’ Barreled Outs? It’s Not All About Comerica.
As a fellow baseball nerd, you probably know that the barrel is a classification of hard-hit balls. You also probably know that most barrels end up as extra-base hits. Hit a barrel, and you’re good to go. Round the bases, collect $200, that sort of thing.
Unfortunately, that bliss is not as common for Nick Castellanos. Since the Statcast era (2015), this poor man leads all of baseball with 80 barreled outs, 15 more than the runner-up, José Abreu. 80 barrels that, perhaps with a bit more speed, could have boosted his offensive output. What could explain Castellanos’ rotten luck?
Much of the blame was placed on his former home, Comerica Park, which features a cavernous outfield that traps balls on home run trajectories. Fans began to speculate what would happen if Castellanos saw a change of scenery. Their wish came true when he was traded to the Cubs at the 2019 deadline. And in the off-season, he joined the Reds on a 4-year contract, seemingly ending his association with Comerica.
There was one problem, however. Castellanos’ batted balls continued to die at the warning track, or end up in the gloves of outfielders. This persisted into 2020 — even in a shortened season, he still managed to lead the league with 9 barreled outs.
Initially, like many others, I thought this was just a result of 60-game variance; I even tweeted about it. But you’ve read the title. There’s something more to this than luck.
First, it’s important to know that not all barrels are created equal. There are no-doubters, like a Giancarlo Stanton blast. There are also these types of barrels:
Castellanos hit that ball at a speed of 99.3 mph and an angle of 25 degrees. Not very exciting, and looking at its flight path, also predictable. It barely passes as a barrel, which is initially classified as a ball hit at least 98 mph with a launch angle of 26 to 30 degrees; the range of launch angles expands for every mph over 98.
Overall, barreled outs are usually characterized by a lack of speed, angle, or both. For example, here’s how key metrics look like for Castellanos’ 2020 barrels that became hits compared to those that ended up as outs:
When the difference between a warning track out and a home run is only a couple feet, the extra speed and lift are absolutely crucial. Castellanos may have been robbed of hits due to park dimensions, and some of his barreled outs do have a high xBA, but for the most part his outs are on him.
Still, it’s weird that a prolific hitter has such a significant number of loud outs. Maybe this is the so-called luck factor?
I thought so too. But the reality is this: Although Castellanos’ image is that of the prototypical modern power hitter, he doesn’t hit the ball as hard as you might expect.
There’s a metric called Max EV, which is simply the maximum exit velocity recorded by a hitter in a season. It’s surprisingly useful, and Alex Chamberlain of RotoGraphs wrote about the metric’s ability to describe and predict a hitter’s wOBAcon. The logic behind it is that a hitter’s absolute ceiling is indicative of his overall talent. If someone can lift 100 pounds, you can assume that he/she comfortably hoists around 50 on a regular basis.
But when measured by Max EV, Castellanos’ talents come into question:
Yeesh, those are mediocre numbers. I didn’t include 2020 due to Castellanos having fewer opportunities to hit than usual, but he did record a career-low in Max EV (108.5). Essentially, Castellanos has a hard time hitting no-doubters that would lower the number of his barreled outs. In contrast, Giancarlo Stanton has just 32 barreled outs since 2015, though he admittedly missed time due to various injuries.
There is one flaw with Max EV, however — it doesn’t describe if it was recorded on a ground ball, line drive, or fly ball. The latter two are much more valuable. It also doesn’t indicate consistency. Perhaps Castellanos has a poor Max EV but a steady rate of hard-hit line drives and fly balls.
So I recorded Castellanos’ average FB/LD EV starting from 2016, then compared his number to that of others. Hitters needed a minimum of 100 BBE (batted ball events) from 2016 to 2019:
Across a full season, Castellanos ends up between the 60th and 70th percentile in terms of FB/LD EV. That is above average, but certainly below the tier of elite hitters. It’s likely his offensive output will be capped at this level. Different ballparks change the requirements for an extra-base hit, but not the inputs themselves — unless you’re playing at Coors Field, of course.
Here’s what’s interesting, though. I didn’t include them into the table for concerns over sample size, but Castellanos’ average EV and barrel rate did increase in 2020. Yet, as we saw, 9 of his barrels still resulted in outs.
This, I think, is the simplest way to look at his situation. Sure, escaping Comerica may tack on a few more extra-base hits, but even improvements to his middling Max EV and above-average, not elite, EV on FB/LD won’t get him to monstrous home run totals. His main draw is productivity, not raw potential.
I asked a friend (@DanJPreciado) for a comp to Nick Castellanos, and he replied with José Abreu. It’s not a coincidence, then, that Abreu was the runner-up for the Most Barreled Outs award. Their statistical profiles in recent years are incredibly similar. Since 2018:
- Abreu — .283/.336/.512, 125 wRC+, 6.0 BB%, 21.2 K%
- Castellanos — .284/.338/.509, 122 wRC+, 6.9 BB%, 22.9 K%
This is my expectation for Castellanos moving forward: 120 wRC+, with a range of 110 to 130. But beyond that requires an uncharacteristic, good fortune. Castellanos may have been ecstatic to leave Comerica, though as fans, we should expect his usual self. Still, that equals a great hitter!
All data courtesy of Baseball Savant and Fangraphs.
Featured photo by Brace Hemmelgarn of Getty Images.
